Mobilization and Toxicity Potential of Aluminum from Alum Floc Deposits in Kensico Reservoir,New York

There is detailed literature on the mobilization of aluminum (Al) from soil to surface waters as a result of elevated acidic deposition to base‐poor forest watersheds. There is considerably less information on the mobilization and effects of Al from the application of alum that is used in some water supplies to control turbidity during high‐flow events. We report on the results of field measurements, laboratory sediment release experiments, and chemical equilibrium calculations conducted to evaluate the potential for the mobilization of Al from alum floc deposits in sediments of Kensico Reservoir, New York. Under ambient water quality conditions, mobilization of sediment Al is not a noteworthy concern at Kensico Reservoir. However, under experimental conditions of low pH, low acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), and low temperature, the inorganic fraction of monomeric Al can be mobilized from Kensico sediments to concentrations that would likely impair the health of aquatic organisms (>2 μmol/l). Elevated concentrations of monomeric Al were observed only when ANC decreased below 50 μeq/l, which is outside the range of values observed in Kensico during the 1997‐2007 interval (120‐460 μeq/l). Concentrations of complexing ligands are relatively low in Kensico waters (i.e., fluoride, naturally occurring organic solutes) and do not appear to substantially contribute to potential Al mobilization. For other water supplies with low ANC, the potential for sediment release of Al may exist.     

New insights into the benefits of flood warnings: Results from a household survey in England and Wales

The flood defence agency in England and Wales has been pursuing a programme of flood warning system enhancement, engaging householders at risk in improving their warning responses. The immediate aim of this paper is to test and revise a model of economic benefits of warnings, but the survey data also generate insights into the constraints acting upon flood warning responses. Damage saving is less than previously anticipated: warning reliability and householder availability problems limit savings. Warnings are less likely to be received by those in lower social grades, and flood warning lead time is a factor in avoiding damage. The survey data indicate the complexities involved in improving flood warning response, and provide policy pointers.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

The Truth About Science: A middle school curriculum teaching the scientific method and data analysis in an ecology context

The Truth About Science is a 40-lesson middle school curriculum module that teaches the process of scientific research, integrating mathematics and science concepts and skills. The goal of the curriculum is to teach students to think systematically and statistically about science inquiry. Students participate in each step of the scientific inquiry process, from asking testable research questions, designing unbiased experiments, and collecting their own data, to analyzing these data via graphical representations and statistical summaries, and communicating their research results as both poster and oral presentations. While the necessary statistical skills depend on difficult and abstract mathematical concepts, middle school students have been successful in applying them to their own research projects. The curriculum meets local and national standards in science and mathematics education and fills a gap in available educational materials. It has been piloted and revised through multiple iterations and published by the National Science Teachers Association Press. Feedback from teachers and students has been extremely positive.     

Random denominators and the analysis of ratio data

Ratio data, observations in which one random value is divided by another random value, present unique analytical challenges. The best statistical technique varies depending on the unit on which the inference is based. We present three environmental case studies where ratios are used to compare two groups, and we provide three parametric models from which to simulate ratio data. The models describe situations in which (1) the numerator variance and mean are proportional to the denominator, (2) the numerator mean is proportional to the denominator but its variance is proportional to a quadratic function of the denominator and (3) the numerator and denominator are independent. We compared standard approaches for drawing inference about differences between two distributions of ratios: t-tests, t-tests with transformations, permutation tests, the Wilcoxon rank test, and ANCOVA-based tests. Comparisons between tests were based both on achieving the specified alpha-level and on statistical power. The tests performed comparably with a few notable exceptions. We developed simple guidelines for choosing a test based on the unit of inference and relationship between the numerator and denominator.     

Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.     

Convergence and emergence in organizations: An integrative framework and review

In reaction to the growing attention to connecting individual‐level and unit‐level constructs, we first briefly review emergence terminology and theories that address the dynamic process by which a higher‐level phenomenon emerges from lower‐level elements. Next, we review the extant theory and research on emergence and convergence in organization science using an organizing framework that simultaneously considers the content area of lower‐level elements, the emergent factors, and the target of the emergent property. In addition to organizing and bridging current literature on emergence and convergence, gaps of existing research and new directions for future research, including compilation and divergence, are identified. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of developmental metrics for utilization in a pediatric advanced automatic crash notification algorithm

Objective: Appropriate treatment at designated trauma centers (TCs) improves outcomes among injured children after motor vehicle crashes (MVCs). Advanced Automatic Crash Notification (AACN) has shown promise in improving triage to appropriate TCs. Pediatric-specific AACN algorithms have not yet been created. To create such an algorithm, it will be necessary to include some metric of development (age, height, or weight) as a covariate in the injury risk algorithm. This study sought to determine which marker of development should serve as a covariate in such an algorithm and to quantify injury risk at different levels of this metric.

Methods: A retrospective review of occupants age < 19 years within the MVC data set NASS-CDS 2000–2011 was performed. R² values of logistic regression models using age, height, or weight to predict 18 key injury types were compared to determine which metric should be used as a covariate in a pediatric AACN algorithm. Clinical judgment, literature review, and chi-square analysis were used to create groupings of the chosen metric that would discriminate injury patterns. Adjusted odds of particular injury types at the different levels of this metric were calculated from logistic regression while controlling for gender, vehicle velocity change (delta V), belted status (optimal, suboptimal, or unrestrained), and crash mode (rollover, rear, frontal, near-side, or far-side).

Results: NASS-CDS analysis produced 11,541 occupants age < 19 years with nonmissing data. Age, height, and weight were correlated with one another and with injury patterns. Age demonstrated the best predictive power in injury patterns and was categorized into bins of 0–4 years, 5–9 years, 10–14 years, and 15–18 years. Age was a significant predictor of all 18 injury types evaluated even when controlling for all other confounders and when controlling for age- and gender-specific body mass index (BMI) classifications. Adjusted odds of key injury types with respect to these age categorizations revealed that younger children were at increased odds of sustaining Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ and 3+ head injuries and AIS 3+ spinal injuries, whereas older children were at increased odds of sustaining thoracic fractures, AIS 3+ abdominal injuries, and AIS 2+ upper and lower extremity injuries.

Conclusions: The injury patterns observed across developmental metrics in this study mirror those previously described among children with blunt trauma. This study identifies age as the metric best suited for use in a pediatric AACN algorithm and utilizes 12 years of data to provide quantifiable risks of particular injuries at different levels of this metric. This risk quantification will have important predictive purposes in a pediatric-specific AACN algorithm.     

Social facilitation of exploration in mosquitofish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gambusia holbrooki</Emphasis>)

The social environment can exert a powerful influence on the expression of an individual’s behaviour patterns. For example, social facilitation occurs where individuals are more likely to express a given behaviour, or express it a greater rate, in the presence of conspecifics. Social facilitation is partly driven by an individual’s perception of risk, which is a function both of the size of its social group and the information that it gathers relating to predator activity and risk. Here I tested the effects of social group size (one, two, four, eight or 16 fish) and the presence of ‘social’, ‘predation’ or ‘neutral’ chemical cues (derived respectively from live conspecifics, injured conspecifics or a blank water control) on the exploratory behaviour of juvenile mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) in a novel environment. Focal fish in larger groups explored a greater proportion of the arena during the course of the experiment, demonstrating social facilitation of exploration. After 4 h in the arena, focal fish in all group sizes showed significantly reduced swimming activity, suggesting that the initial faster swimming activity of fish on entry to the arena may be in response to the motivation to explore. The presence of predation cues in the environment had the effect of reducing exploratory behaviour across groups in a novel environment, whereas social cues had no effect on exploratory behaviour. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that there is a high degree of context dependency in the expression of exploratory behaviour, with a strong influence of both the presence of conspecifics and cues relating to potential danger.     

The Influence of Varying Planktonic and Periphytic Algal Biomass On Exposure to Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Mesocosms

Algal populations, either suspended in the water column (planktonic) or present on the walls of an enclosure (periphytic), develop differently depending upon the physical scale of the system. This study determined whether these variations altered the speciation and therefore exposure of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in estuarine mesocosms. Exposure was defined as the fraction of applied contaminant taken up by plankton after two hours. Using a three phase equilibrium model, the partitioning of a suite of PCBs within variously-sized mesocosms was predicted using laboratory derived distribution coefficients and measured levels of planktonic and periphytic algal biomass. in mesocosms having large wall surface area to volume ratios, sorption of hydrophobic PCBs to periphyton significantly decreased contaminant exposure. However, within the range of planktonic algal biomasses observed in this study, the regulation of PCB exposure was relatively invariant between variously-sized mesocosms. to minimize sorption of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) to periphyton and reduce artefacts inherent with this partitioning, we suggest using mesocosms with low wall surface area to volume ratios (less than or equal to 1). in addition, periphytic biomass should be quantified regularly and a three-phase equilibrium approach used to predict the actual exposure concentrations.